Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9567…20e3 weather 536 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$107 (+1%) realized +$106 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%479W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$19
14 days+$7
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% +$17
other 11% +$68
crypto 11% +$182
tech 8% −$236
culture 3% −$26
sports 1% −$22
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 346 -0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 447 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 3% -8.1%
all 528 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses479 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)528 / 536
History coverage157d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 19h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 34h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.84 · official $319.84 (match) · 1815 history records