Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9567…f392 crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$201 (-5%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$44
14 days−$217
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$81
world 2% −$79
politics 2% −$55
other 0% −$6
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.2% -24.1% 43% 38% -18.3%
≤30d 91 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 41% -14.1%
≤90d 91 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 41% -14.1%
all 91 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 41% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 40% -22.3%
15% -36.1% 34% -29.8%
20% -42.4% 29% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage15d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $76 −$14 -19%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$11 +40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $66 −$48 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $27 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $28 +$16 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $18 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $27 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$14 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records