Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x9568…2543 other 1082 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1075W / 4L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$2
sports 44% +$7
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 275 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 913 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 1079 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1075 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1079 / 1082
History coverage111d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1079 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KSG (-1.5) vs Wolves (+1.5) Kuaishou Gaming 98¢ 80¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Matylda Burylo vs. Emina Honic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Avataneo vs. Bartel: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Haverlag/Martins vs Eikeri/Gleason Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Padula vs. Jamshidi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Malmkjaer vs. Mortensen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Giraldi vs. Misasi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Roussel vs. Kouzmine: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Sickenberger vs Majdandzic Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Ifi vs. Efstathiou: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Fernandes vs. Ivashka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Photiades vs. Inchauspe: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jilly vs. Major: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Radjenovic vs. Matovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Popa vs Biro Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Simone vs. Vela: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Chiesa vs. Tsygourova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Sahli vs. Kirkin: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Stankovic vs Dencheva Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Hu vs. Choe: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Turini vs. Marcinkevica: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Rabbat vs. Yesypchuk: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Janicijevic vs. Konstantinova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Nedic vs. Mohar: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Voracek vs. Schnyder: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ali Olwan: 1+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Fouad vs. Marinescu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Alexander Prass: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Mousa Ta'mari: 4+ goals + assists Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Samrej vs. Lim: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Nicolás Paz: 5+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Thiago Almada: 5+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Chen vs. Oh: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Wade Meckler: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Brandon Young: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Liu vs. Tsujioka: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Brandon Nimmo: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
MJ Melendez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jasson Domínguez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Ben Waine: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 4+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Aguirre: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Matylda Burylo vs. Emina Honic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $4 17m
Avataneo vs. Bartel: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 42m
Game Handicap: KSG (-1.5) vs Wolves (+1.5) BUY Kuaishou Gaming 98¢ $5 1h
Set 2 Winner: Haverlag/Martins vs Eikeri/Gleason BUY Eikeri/Gleason 100¢ $5 1h
Padula vs. Jamshidi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 2h
Malmkjaer vs. Mortensen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 2h
Giraldi vs. Misasi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 2h
Roussel vs. Kouzmine: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Set 2 Winner: Sickenberger vs Majdandzic BUY Majdandzic 100¢ $4 2h
Ifi vs. Efstathiou: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 2h
Fernandes vs. Ivashka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Photiades vs. Inchauspe: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Jilly vs. Major: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Radjenovic vs. Matovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Set 2 Winner: Popa vs Biro BUY Popa 100¢ $5 4h
Sahli vs. Kirkin: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Simone vs. Vela: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 4h
Chiesa vs. Tsygourova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Set 2 Winner: Stankovic vs Dencheva BUY Stankovic 100¢ $5 5h
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Hu vs. Choe: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 5h
Nedic vs. Mohar: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Turini vs. Marcinkevica: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 6h
Rabbat vs. Yesypchuk: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Janicijevic vs. Konstantinova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Ali Olwan: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Voracek vs. Schnyder: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7h
Fouad vs. Marinescu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7h
Alexander Prass: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.98 · official $12.98 (match) · 2484 history records