Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x956b…7eb1 other 665 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$366 (-11%) realized −$365 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%166W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$388
7 days−$223
14 days−$257
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$456
sports 40% +$91
crypto 9% −$15
world 1% −$3
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 57% -18.4%
≤30d 115 -28.7% -35.5% 37% 35% -19.3%
≤90d 552 -19.5% -27.2% 21% 20% -21.6%
all 665 -16.6% -24.6% 25% 23% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 23% -20.6%
10% -31.8% 20% -28.2%
15% -38.4% 18% -35.1%
20% -44.4% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$365
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses166 / 499
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)665 / 665
History coverage96d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 53¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $0 $0 +200%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$7 -18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$3 +17%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$14 +55%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$8 -75%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $137 −$137 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$34 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$9 -60%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$106 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $111 +$17 +15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $39 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 48¢ $20 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 6¢ $3 2h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $200 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $30 3h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $10 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 95¢ $200 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 4h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 38¢ $10 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $10 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $10 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $25 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $25 12h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $30 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $137 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $25 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.73 · official $5.23 (match) · 1450 history records