Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x956d…4e98 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$6
other 24% −$5
politics 17% −$2
crypto 9% −$2
economics 9% −$3
culture 7% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 226
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage172d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 03 $61 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $185 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 02 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $406 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $248 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $35 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $36 7h
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $38 7d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $38 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $37 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 15d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $28 22d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $28 23d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 35d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 35d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $37 108d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $37 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 93¢ $35 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 108d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 108d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 108d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 96¢ $33 108d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 96¢ $34 108d
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $31 108d
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $31 108d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 108d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $35 108d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $30 108d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $30 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 108d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 108d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 108d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $41 108d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $41 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 836 history records