Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x956e…7e32 crypto 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-2%) realized −$127 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%120W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$415
7 days+$271
14 days+$271
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$351
other 16% +$159
weather 7% −$184
sports 3% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -40.7% -46.3% 24% 19% -5.5%
≤30d 195 -40.7% -46.3% 24% 19% -5.5%
≤90d 195 -40.7% -46.3% 24% 19% -5.5%
all 288 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 36% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 36% -6.1%
10% -32.4% 29% -15.1%
15% -39.0% 26% -23.3%
20% -44.9% 20% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses120 / 168
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)288 / 289
History coverage122d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 60¢ 66¢ $125 $139 +$14 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $203 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $208 −$59 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $312 +$310 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $206 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $307 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $231 +$45 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$66 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $133 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$13 +36%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $607 +$69 +11%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $183 +$117 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$18 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$7 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $61 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -85%
United States vs. Australia: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $202 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $155 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $157 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $163 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $59 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $135 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $49 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $144 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $102 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $117 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $116 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.28 · official $97.39 · 997 history records