Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9572…efff sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$849 (+13%) realized +$743 · open +$106
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day62.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$144
sports 49% +$679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 32% +0.9%
≤30d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 32% +0.9%
≤90d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 32% +0.9%
all 19 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 32% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 32% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 32% -8.8%
15% -34.9% 26% -17.6%
20% -41.3% 26% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$90 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$743
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 66¢ 88¢ $264 $354 +$90 (+34%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 64¢ $240 $256 +$16 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,741 +$12 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $198 +$102 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $200 +$20 +10%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $896 +$813 +91%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $307 −$22 -7%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $232 +$61 +26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $276 −$178 -65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $177 −$20 -12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $453 +$46 +10%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $130 +$120 +92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $260 +$140 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $605 +$25 +4%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $161 +$189 +117%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $156 −$156 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 66¢ $264 1m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $111 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $72 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $54 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $1,617 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $124 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $198 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $0 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $115 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $258 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $27 9h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 57¢ $24 9h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL Lilmix 60¢ $19 9h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 41¢ $28 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL Lilmix 47¢ $13 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 43¢ $221 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 34¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 23¢ $25 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $155 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $28 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $28 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $22 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 56¢ $11 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.00 · official $610.00 (match) · 121 history records