Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9576…8933 crypto 38 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-7%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$83
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.2% -42.2% 33% 33% -49.0%
≤30d 38 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 55% -19.5%
≤90d 38 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 55% -19.5%
all 38 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 55% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 55% -19.5%
10% -17.2% 45% -27.2%
15% -25.2% 45% -34.2%
20% -32.6% 37% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $123 −$52 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $34 −$27 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $62 −$42 -67%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $12 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$11 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$11 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $66 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $48 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records