Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9577…8e9a
other · 11 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$16 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage106d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No 76¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 10 $8 +$1 +6%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 10 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 18 $7 +$20 +285%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 202 Mar 25 $11 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$5
world 25% $0
finance 11% +$20
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 9 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 33% +15.9%
all 9 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 33% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 33% +15.9%
10% -14.1% 22% +4.8%
15% -22.4% 22% -5.3%
20% -30.0% 11% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.18 (match) · 17 history records