Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9578…f066 culture 421 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,127 (+4%) realized +$9,955 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate83%311W / 62L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$16,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,133
7 days+$1,681
14 days+$2,219
30 days+$2,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$32
other 31% +$4,063
culture 18% +$3,005
world 1% +$79
crypto 0% +$32
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +31.4% +18.9% 87% 26% +2.3%
≤30d 132 +12.9% +2.1% 89% 23% -4.6%
≤90d 352 +9.8% -0.6% 84% 19% -5.2%
all 373 +9.3% -1.1% 83% 19% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 19% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 10% -14.2%
15% -19.2% 7% -22.5%
20% -27.1% 5% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$16,030
Realized+$9,955
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses311 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions49
Markets (closed)373 / 421
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$632
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 84¢ 89¢ $6,590 $6,997 +$407 (+6%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $1,575 $2,512 +$937 (+60%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 72¢ 97¢ $1,078 $1,453 +$375 (+35%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $1,007 $1,162 +$156 (+15%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $1,575 $638 −$937 (-60%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 77¢ 83¢ $466 $500 +$34 (+7%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 78¢ 88¢ $374 $420 +$46 (+12%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $236 $309 +$73 (+31%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $246 $257 +$12 (+5%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? No 78¢ 98¢ $146 $183 +$38 (+26%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $93 $137 +$44 (+47%)
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 96¢ 99¢ $103 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Will Twice release a song in 2026? Yes 73¢ 51¢ $132 $92 −$40 (-31%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in June? No 89¢ 96¢ $84 $90 +$6 (+8%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 82¢ 52¢ $118 $75 −$43 (-37%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 61¢ 96¢ $43 $67 +$24 (+57%)
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 91¢ 100¢ $60 $65 +$6 (+9%)
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in June? No 86¢ 95¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+10%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $47 $60 +$13 (+27%)
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 33¢ 92¢ $21 $59 +$38 (+183%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $57 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in June? No 83¢ 94¢ $51 $58 +$7 (+13%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $51 $58 +$7 (+13%)
Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 81¢ 95¢ $49 $57 +$8 (+17%)
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 80¢ 92¢ $48 $55 +$7 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wor Jun 23 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have no songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June Jun 23 $29 +$2 +6%
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be t Jun 22 $350 +$14 +4%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 22 $267 −$7 -3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $638 +$699 +110%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $107 +$193 +180%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2,565 +$162 +6%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,376 +$24 +2%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $22 +$8 +33%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $1,569 +$38 +2%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 21 $61 +$1 +2%
Will "honeybee - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this wee Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 21 $58 +$4 +7%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 20 $44 $0 +1%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Kanye release Bully Deluxe by June 19? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $12 +$2 +21%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 19 $12 +$1 +8%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 19 $814 +$21 +3%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $69 +$28 +41%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $592 +$10 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $3,601 +$308 +9%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $1 +$9 +669%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $221 +$286 +129%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 18 $97 +$5 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 18 $14 +$3 +20%
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $3,156 +$60 +2%
Will Jotham Stein advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $31 +$3 +11%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 16 $5 +$11 +233%
Will Argentina be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 F Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 15 $320 +$36 +11%
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $221 +$7 +3%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $793 +$79 +10%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,550 $0 +0%
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $65 +$6 +9%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $61 +$6 +9%
Will "Ran to Atlanta - Drake, Future & Molly Santana" be the #1 song o Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Potential - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +6%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $328 +$319 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 90¢ $180 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 3h
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $389 3h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 83¢ $8 4h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 83¢ $56 4h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 83¢ $11 4h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 83¢ $8 4h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 83¢ $42 4h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 89¢ $90 5h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 83¢ $2 10h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 83¢ $15 10h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 83¢ $33 10h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 13¢ $4 11h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 90¢ $18 11h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 90¢ $27 11h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 90¢ $31 11h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 90¢ $9 11h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 90¢ $5 11h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 11h
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 11h
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,367 11h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 90¢ $5 12h
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 89¢ $5 12h
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 98¢ $39 12h
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 96¢ $103 12h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee BUY Yes 43¢ $5 12h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 87¢ $12 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,030.46 · official $16,030.46 (match) · 3500 history records