Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x957a…3a47 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%4W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4
other 24% −$1
politics 16% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses4 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage299d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $57 −$3 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $86 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Sep 05 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $3 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $6 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $39 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $45 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $24 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $37 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $44 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $44 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records