Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x957f…aee0 weather 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$938 (+2%) realized +$936 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%362W / 336L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day65.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$13
14 days+$185
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$984
other 4% −$105
world 2% −$110
crypto 2% +$7
culture 2% −$7
sports 2% +$55
politics 1% +$11
finance 0% −$12
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -34.6% -40.8% 42% 6% -6.7%
≤30d 446 -24.2% -31.5% 52% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 698 -21.3% -28.8% 52% 5% -8.3%
all 698 -21.3% -28.8% 52% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 5% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 2% -17.1%
15% -41.8% 1% -25.1%
20% -47.5% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$936
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses362 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)698 / 672
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day65.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $246 $245 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? No 89¢ 92¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Apr Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1513%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -516%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Apr Jun 18 $0 −$3 -6118%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 25? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -600%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 13°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 21? Jun 18 $1 −$132 -14484%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -300%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C or below on April 28? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 24? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 28? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 25? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Apr Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 16°C or below on April 24? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 24? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Apr Jun 18 $0 −$2 -4406%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? Jun 18 $162 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 18 $44 +$9 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? Jun 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? Jun 18 $9 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $13 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $272 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $256 +$17 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 42m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 97¢ $53 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $24 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $39 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $39 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $39 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $41 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 79¢ $44 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 20? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? SELL No 53¢ $8 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 53¢ $8 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.86 · official $300.86 (match) · 3500 history records