Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x957f…a9bd crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+9%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 41% -36.4%
≤30d 27 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 41% -36.4%
≤90d 27 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 41% -36.4%
all 27 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 41% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 41% -36.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 41% -42.5%
15% -35.3% 41% -48.0%
20% -41.6% 41% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$11 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$29 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $28 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records