Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9583…fa5d crypto 217 markets active 3h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$260 (+12%) realized +$262 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%87W / 127L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$97
other 36% +$188
sports 19% +$63
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +2.5% -7.3% 41% 39% -0.2%
≤30d 213 +2.5% -7.3% 41% 39% -0.2%
≤90d 213 +2.5% -7.3% 41% 39% -0.2%
all 214 +2.0% -7.7% 41% 39% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 39% -1.2%
10% -16.5% 36% -10.6%
15% -24.6% 32% -19.3%
20% -32.0% 28% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 127
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)214 / 217
History coverage121d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +116%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$39 +96%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$24 +116%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 +$10 +126%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$11 +107%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +30%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $80 6h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $44 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 9h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.95 · official $11.95 (match) · 454 history records