Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9586…8320 crypto 331 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,558 (-13%) realized −$1,558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%136W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$792
world 1% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -28.3% -35.2% 57% 57% -15.1%
≤30d 23 -28.3% -35.2% 57% 57% -15.1%
≤90d 91 -81.9% -83.6% 14% 14% -21.7%
all 331 -25.4% -32.5% 41% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 38% -16.3%
10% -38.9% 36% -24.3%
15% -44.8% 31% -31.7%
20% -50.2% 29% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -88% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses136 / 195
Open positions0
Markets (closed)331 / 331
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 331 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $67 +$33 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2PM ET May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1PM ET May 05 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records