Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x958a…df0e sports 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$816 (+10%) realized +$869 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 129L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$117
14 days+$107
30 days+$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$760
other 26% −$66
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 38% 38% -23.2%
≤30d 115 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 53% +6.5%
≤90d 224 +1.6% -8.0% 47% 47% +1.2%
all 250 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 48% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 48% -0.4%
10% -17.7% 46% -9.9%
15% -25.6% 42% -18.6%
20% -32.9% 35% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized+$869
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 129
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions9
Markets (closed)250 / 260
History coverage635d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $165 $158 −$7 (-4%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $89 $133 +$44 (+50%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 26¢ $200 $102 −$98 (-49%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 58¢ 58¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $48 $57 +$8 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 +$43 +70%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 +$27 +82%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $74 −$18 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 −$152 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +154%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $26 +$17 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $60 +$34 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$37 +356%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $160 +$56 +35%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $15 +$23 +152%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $25 −$10 -39%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $35 +$101 +290%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $117 −$15 -13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $56 +$52 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 +$45 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $26 −$26 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 +$44 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $14 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $27 +$16 +58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$28 +28%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 +$14 +278%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $20 +$13 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $142 +$68 +48%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $23 +$13 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $15 +$6 +38%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $30 +$17 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $35 +$27 +76%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 +$43 +85%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $91 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $44 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $46 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $61 18h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $61 18h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $33 21h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $23 21h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $57 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $58 23h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $74 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 43h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $24 43h
Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $61 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 43¢ $23 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $52 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 3d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $91 3d
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.05 · official $699.05 (match) · 433 history records