Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x958d…3501
sports · 494 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$5,155 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,297 · open +$320
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,313
Realized+$4,297
Unrealized+$320
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses222 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions34
Markets (closed)463 / 494
History coverage42d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 34 History 463 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$241
14 days+$1,005
30 days+$1,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $2,681 $2,831 +$150 (+6%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $566 $803 +$237 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 81¢ $620 $770 +$151 (+24%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 78¢ $670 $630 −$40 (-6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 69¢ 55¢ $721 $573 −$148 (-21%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 57¢ $534 $423 −$111 (-21%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $221 $226 +$5 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $221 $223 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $221 $222 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $201 $212 +$11 (+6%)
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $171 $210 +$39 (+23%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-1%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $183 $199 +$16 (+9%)
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 52¢ $101 $171 +$70 (+69%)
Another US debt downgrade before 2027? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $303 $158 −$145 (-48%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 68¢ 78¢ $101 $115 +$14 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 74¢ 81¢ $101 $111 +$10 (+10%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 86¢ 90¢ $101 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $100 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 54¢ $71 $93 +$22 (+31%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $36 $64 +$28 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $1,188 +$33 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $440 −$88 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $1,624 −$129 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $1,064 +$68 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $110 −$5 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $221 −$10 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $630 −$32 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $550 −$49 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $636 +$48 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 08 $30 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $133 +$31 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $402 −$8 -2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $30 −$3 -9%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $240 −$28 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $20 +$6 +31%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $20 +$5 +27%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $141 −$3 -2%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $71 −$18 -25%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -7%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 07 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $80 +$6 +7%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $80 −$80 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $72 +$24 +34%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 +$20 +99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 07 $1,233 +$71 +6%
Will Bruno Guimarães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $123 −$7 -6%
Will Omar Marmoush score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $223 −$10 -4%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $30 +$8 +26%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 $0 -4%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $50 +$8 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $72 −$5 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $140 +$12 +8%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $32 −$3 -11%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 −$3 -28%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$1,356
sports 19% +$1,487
other 19% +$108
politics 6% +$1,309
finance 3% +$14
tech 3% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $100 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $30 23m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $101 24m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $50 31m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $101 31m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $30 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $14 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $13 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $18 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $5 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $101 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $75 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $16 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $100 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $25 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $76 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $101 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 74¢ $101 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $483 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $610 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 72¢ $176 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $50 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $30 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -8.2% -17.0% 31% 20% -11.3%
≤30d 291 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 37% -6.2%
≤90d 463 +2.7% -7.0% 48% 41% -3.3%
all 463 +2.7% -7.0% 48% 41% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 41% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 30% -12.6%
15% -24.1% 20% -21.0%
20% -31.5% 13% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,312.70 · official $9,312.94 (match) · 3500 history records