Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x9591…6a28 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$248 (-6%) realized −$248 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$182per market

Trades / day67.0pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-23.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-15.9%	-23.9%	55%	50%	-22.3%
≤30d	20	-15.9%	-23.9%	55%	50%	-22.3%
≤90d	20	-15.9%	-23.9%	55%	50%	-22.3%
all	20	-15.9%	-23.9%	55%	50%	-22.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover67.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-23.9%	50%	-22.3%
10% ← realistic here	-31.2%	40%	-29.7%
15%	-37.9%	25%	-36.5%
20%	-43.9%	10%	-42.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late -35% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$72 vs −$146 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$56

Realized−$248

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$182

Trades / day67.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$56	$56	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 22	$207	−$200	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 22	$135	+$124	+92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 22	$207	−$200	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 22	$107	+$30	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 22	$202	+$38	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 22	$152	+$41	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 22	$306	−$306	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 22	$8	−$8	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 22	$105	−$15	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 22	$211	−$211	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 22	$102	+$2	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 22	$204	+$87	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 22	$605	+$71	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 22	$307	+$133	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 22	$207	+$164	+80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 22	$203	−$203	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 22	$154	−$154	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 22	$155	+$69	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 22	$90	−$21	-23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 22	$102	+$32	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$57	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$258	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$137	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$107	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$240	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$89	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$105	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$104	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$106	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$105	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$201	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$302	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$8	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.60 · official $55.60 (match) · 79 history records