Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9592…a7b8
other · 356 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$42,581 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,936 · open −$11,681
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91,241
Realized+$18,936
Unrealized−$11,681
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses254 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)302 / 356
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,904
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 54 History 302 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,000
7 days+$32,485
14 days+$36,360
30 days+$43,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20,852 $21,097 +$245 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $19,123 $16,478 −$2,645 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $6,699 $8,601 +$1,903 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $3,900 $7,717 +$3,816 (+98%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $11,802 $6,361 −$5,441 (-46%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $2,118 $3,260 +$1,142 (+54%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 37¢ 68¢ $1,735 $3,181 +$1,446 (+83%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $3,555 $3,168 −$388 (-11%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $1,903 $2,999 +$1,096 (+58%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $10,977 $2,627 −$8,350 (-76%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $1,941 $2,550 +$609 (+31%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? No 98¢ 92¢ $2,185 $2,031 −$154 (-7%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $2,067 $1,617 −$450 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1,300 $1,250 −$50 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1,101 $1,090 −$11 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 25¢ 42¢ $491 $840 +$349 (+71%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $773 $740 −$33 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $725 $558 −$167 (-23%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $700 $508 −$192 (-27%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $520 $416 −$104 (-20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $680 $399 −$281 (-41%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $597 $390 −$207 (-35%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $566 $355 −$211 (-37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $500 $333 −$167 (-33%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $764 $298 −$466 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $398 −$27 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $22,818 +$21,685 +95%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 11 $52 +$31 +60%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $123 +$47 +38%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $2,290 +$212 +9%
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati Jun 11 $132 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $552 +$12 +2%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $777 +$1 +0%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $381 +$4 +1%
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $717 +$10 +1%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1,055 +$91 +9%
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $280 +$20 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2,797 −$1,893 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $10,378 +$1,948 +19%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $1,971 +$200 +10%
Will Trump announce Michael Ellis as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $862 +$54 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2,645 +$536 +20%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,921 −$294 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $9,257 −$7,587 -82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $5,746 +$8,844 +154%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $4,355 +$2,369 +54%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $2,560 +$3,700 +144%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $9,090 +$2,084 +23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,581 +$70 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6,268 −$4,749 -76%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $204 +$2 +1%
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $205 +$23 +11%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 09 $270 +$22 +8%
Will "Guitar" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 09 $1,397 +$38 +3%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 09 $217 +$22 +10%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 09 $201 +$29 +14%
Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 09 $332 +$31 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$8 +64%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +44%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 09 $418 +$13 +3%
Will "Instagram" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 09 $395 +$13 +3%
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 09 $511 +$15 +3%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 09 $486 +$14 +3%
Will "Imagine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the we Jun 09 $261 +$4 +1%
Will "Love" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $226 +$3 +1%
Will "Texas" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $98 +$1 +1%
Will "Probably" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the w Jun 09 $158 +$2 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $103 +$34 +33%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $700 +$1,109 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% −$10,277
politics 28% +$13,213
other 18% +$4,007
tech 1% +$1,536
finance 1% −$1,461
crypto 0% +$165
sports 0% +$79
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,800 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $960 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $216 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $228 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $120 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $320 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $99 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $93 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $257 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $254 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $328 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $121 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $519 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $256 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $62 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,560 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +8.0% -2.3% 79% 32% +16.6%
≤30d 158 +19.9% +8.5% 83% 27% +9.4%
≤90d 302 +12.4% +1.7% 84% 25% -3.3%
all 302 +12.4% +1.7% 84% 25% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 25% -3.3%
10% -8.0% 16% -12.5%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 12% -21.0%
20% -25.0% 11% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91,240.81 · official $90,015.61 · 3444 history records