Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9593…c49c politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
other 29% $0
politics 20% $0
culture 8% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.2% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.2% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 47 -0.6% -10.1% 23% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage332d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 68¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $42 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $20 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Aug 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting? Aug 10 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 26 $14 $0 -3%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $15 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 24 $65 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 23 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $22 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $17 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $32 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $6 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $28 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $43 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $17 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $20 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $43 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $16 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $23 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $43 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $42 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.09 · official $33.69 (match) · 154 history records