trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $51 | $51 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-76%) |
| Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | Jun 08 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? | May 27 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? | May 27 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | May 23 | $53 | −$27 | -52% |
| Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | May 21 | $16 | −$5 | -31% |
| Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H | Mar 19 | $21 | +$14 | +68% |
| Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next | Mar 15 | $26 | +$11 | +42% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | Mar 10 | $15 | +$15 | +98% |
| Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? | Mar 07 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026? | Feb 11 | $153 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | Feb 08 | $77 | +$2 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -16.5% | -24.5% | 60% | 0% | -22.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 67% | 17% | -16.3% |
| all | 11 | +175.4% | +149.2% | 73% | 27% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +149.2% | 27% | -10.4% |
| 10% | +125.3% | 27% | -19.0% |
| 15% | +103.6% | 27% | -26.8% |
| 20% | +83.6% | 18% | -34.0% |