Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x959d…de65 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠

BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 29d only

✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$3,672 (-5%) realized −$3,664 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Whale WR33%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,424per market

Trades / day109.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$36

7 days−$678

14 days+$140

30 days−$3,899

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-13.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-19.8%	-27.5%	20%	20%	-13.8%
≤30d	21	-4.2%	-13.3%	48%	24%	-14.3%
≤90d	21	-4.2%	-13.3%	48%	24%	-14.3%
all	21	-4.2%	-13.3%	48%	24%	-14.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover109.1 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-13.3%	24%	-14.3%
10%	-21.6%	10%	-22.5%
15% ← realistic here	-29.2%	0%	-30.0%
20%	-36.1%	0%	-36.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 33% (≥$4,609) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -5% → late -4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

136.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$209 vs −$544 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.35 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized−$3,664

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)33%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage30d ⚠

Avg bet$3,424

Trades / day109.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	Up	61¢	44¢	$30	$22	−$8 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 17	$163	+$23	+14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16?	Jun 16	$4,609	−$59	-1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$1,025	−$86	-8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12?	Jun 12	$5,716	−$350	-6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?	Jun 11	$3,575	−$206	-6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10?	Jun 10	$2,774	+$31	+1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9?	Jun 09	$2,223	+$506	+23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8?	Jun 08	$1,161	+$295	+25%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4?	Jun 04	$2,228	−$15	-1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Jun 03	$1,207	+$256	+21%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2?	Jun 02	$1,857	−$206	-11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1?	Jun 01	$6,385	−$272	-4%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1?	Jun 01	$155	+$22	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	May 31	$285	−$45	-16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29?	May 29	$3,835	$0	+0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	May 28	$3,186	+$93	+3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?	May 28	$31	−$4	-13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27?	May 27	$4,240	−$843	-20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21?	May 27	$16,130	−$3,904	-24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?	May 20	$6,688	+$236	+4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	May 19	$6,993	+$627	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	55¢	$28	41m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	54¢	$27	41m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	61¢	$31	1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	61¢	$31	1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	60¢	$30	1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	57¢	$29	2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	56¢	$28	2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	56¢	$28	2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	57¢	$29	2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	57¢	$29	2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	57¢	$29	2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	51¢	$26	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	51¢	$26	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	48¢	$24	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	47¢	$24	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	46¢	$23	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	70¢	$35	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	46¢	$23	3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	69¢	$35	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	69¢	$35	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	69¢	$35	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	66¢	$33	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	66¢	$33	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	65¢	$23	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	64¢	$10	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	66¢	$33	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	62¢	$3	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	63¢	$11	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	63¢	$18	4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	61¢	$31	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.25 · official $22.75 (match) · 3500 history records