Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
95 0x95aa…dbc2 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%48W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$6
crypto 12% +$3
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses48 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage528d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $65 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $32 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 04 $11 $0 +3%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $5,818 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +3%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Texas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 22 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $44 63d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 93d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 93d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $67 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $27 150d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 151d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $44 183d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $18 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $23 242d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $40 243d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 271d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 301d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $55 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 334d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $54 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.03 · official $71.03 (match) · 119 history records