Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x95ad…4eeb other 1036 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$576 (+1%) realized +$576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%660W / 368L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$81
14 days+$66
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$52
sports 34% +$407
world 0% −$44
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.7% +25.5% 62% 62% +17.5%
≤30d 141 +5.3% -4.7% 66% 60% -6.5%
≤90d 639 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 57% -6.8%
all 1028 +2.2% -7.5% 64% 57% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 57% -8.2%
10% -16.3% 42% -17.0%
15% -24.4% 26% -25.0%
20% -31.8% 12% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses660 / 368
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1028 / 1036
History coverage194d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1028 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 18 $30 +$79 +262%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$22 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$21 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 −$27 -63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $45 −$8 -17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 −$34 -57%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $40 +$8 +21%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $28 −$19 -67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 −$18 -66%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $12 −$5 -39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $24 +$14 +58%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $24 −$22 -90%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $29 +$6 +20%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $76 −$11 -15%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $88 +$9 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $39 +$9 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$10 +34%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $20 −$16 -77%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 +$20 +90%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $17 +$7 +40%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia Jun 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $19 −$13 -68%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $28 +$6 +20%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $19 −$10 -50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $42 −$11 -26%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $23 +$12 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $17 +$6 +38%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $11 +$6 +52%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $8 +$3 +39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 +43%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50 −$50 -99%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $38 +$13 +34%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-05-29? May 31 $29 +$8 +29%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $14 +$15 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $9 +$5 +58%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $29 −$20 -68%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $43 −$43 -99%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 −$34 -99%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$36 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 36¢ $40 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 27¢ $30 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 11¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 41¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $33 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 41¢ $35 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 61¢ $47 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 25¢ $29 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND W BUY 30¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 14¢ $8 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $36 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 86¢ $22 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $22 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $11 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $1 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm SELL Los Angeles Sparks 40¢ $12 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 75¢ $23 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 5¢ $4 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $49 7d
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 95¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.62 · official $39.62 (match) · 2314 history records