Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b0…588f crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$848 (+18%) realized +$1,238 · open −$390
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day117.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$310
sports 10% +$299
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 39% -1.4%
≤30d 69 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 39% -1.4%
≤90d 69 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 39% -1.4%
all 69 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 39% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 39% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 39% -10.8%
15% -31.9% 39% -19.4%
20% -38.6% 38% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$50 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$1,238
Unrealized−$390
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)69 / 78
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 43¢ 22¢ $250 $131 −$119 (-48%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 25¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $155 +$159 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $156 +$201 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$186 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$221 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$100 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $73 +$77 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$65 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.43 · official $466.79 · 210 history records