Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b1…e3b6 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$905 (-13%) realized −$873 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$1,171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$14
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$976
crypto 7% +$14
tech 6% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 6 -8.7% -17.4% 83% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 28 -20.9% -28.5% 61% 14% -31.6%
all 36 -15.9% -23.9% 67% 11% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 11% -24.3%
10% -31.2% 0% -31.6%
15% -37.8% 0% -38.2%
20% -43.9% 0% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$88 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,171
Realized−$873
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage122d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 85¢ $338 $340 +$2 (+1%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 91¢ 87¢ $207 $197 −$9 (-4%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 89¢ 84¢ $159 $150 −$9 (-5%)
Printr FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 97¢ 97¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $140 $124 −$16 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 96¢ 96¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Printr FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 99¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 98¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $451 +$20 +4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -70%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $445 +$5 +1%
Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch? May 28 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Citrea launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 09 $46 −$43 -94%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 09 $127 −$2 -2%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $7 +$1 +13%
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 05 $71 −$1 -1%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 05 $8 −$8 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $134 +$7 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $222 −$218 -98%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $210 −$207 -98%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $305 −$301 -99%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $249 −$246 -98%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $218 −$18 -8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 04 $132 +$3 +2%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $24 +$1 +5%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $81 +$9 +11%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $113 +$3 +2%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $173 +$20 +12%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $155 −$2 -1%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $29 +$1 +2%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $179 +$1 +1%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $23 +$1 +6%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $270 +$33 +12%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 25 $195 −$6 -3%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 25 $170 +$5 +3%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 23 $262 +$6 +2%
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitway FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 05 $203 +$6 +3%
Bitway FDV above $10M one day after launch? Mar 05 $317 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $345 +$14 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $144 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $340 1h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $215 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $227 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 25d
Will Citrea launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 97¢ $47 46d
Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 46d
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $46 46d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $124 46d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 48d
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $69 50d
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $70 50d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 4¢ $6 50d
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $71 50d
Printr FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $57 50d
Printr FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $146 50d
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $137 50d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $160 50d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 6¢ $2 50d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $7 50d
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 99¢ $445 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $98 55d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $101 55d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $36 55d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 55d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 55d
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 55d
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.26 · official $1,170.44 (match) · 153 history records