Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

95 0x95b3…bfeb other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$855 (-30%) realized −$962 · open +$107

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$159per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,396now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-17.6%	-25.4%	62%	25%	-71.3%
≤30d	8	-17.6%	-25.4%	62%	25%	-71.3%
≤90d	8	-17.6%	-25.4%	62%	25%	-71.3%
all	8	-17.6%	-25.4%	62%	25%	-71.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.4%	25%	-71.3%
10%	-32.6%	25%	-74.1%
15%	-39.1%	25%	-76.6%
20%	-45.0%	25%	-78.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$365 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$1,396

Realized−$962

Unrealized+$107

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Open positions10

Markets (closed)8 / 18

History coverage9d

Avg bet$159

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$317	$314	−$3 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$240	$254	+$14 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$152	$186	+$34 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$135	$176	+$41 (+31%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$100	$141	+$41 (+41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$112	$102	−$10 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$81	$74	−$8 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$51	$59	+$8 (+16%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$50	$44	−$6 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 20	$103	+$54	+53%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 20	$101	+$9	+9%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 20	$70	−$70	-100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 20	$64	+$4	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 20	$60	+$5	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 20	$33	+$27	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	Jun 14	$1,025	−$1,025	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$103	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$101	2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$70	2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$64	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$60	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$33	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$38	34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$326	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$247	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$77	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$83	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$108	2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	63¢	$799	6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	63¢	$4	6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	63¢	$63	6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	63¢	$143	6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	67¢	$17	6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$157	8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$53	9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$213	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,396.31 · official $1,397.45 (match) · 45 history records