Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b7…595d crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$422 (+8%) realized +$422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$119
14 days+$181
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$455
other 10% −$280
sports 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.9% +4.0% 57% 57% -18.1%
≤30d 88 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 43% -5.7%
≤90d 88 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 43% -5.7%
all 88 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 43% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 43% -5.7%
10% -29.1% 39% -14.7%
15% -36.0% 36% -22.9%
20% -42.3% 26% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$51 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage14d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $44 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $86 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$45 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $137 −$134 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $98 +$89 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $97 +$45 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$40 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$14 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$24 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $264 +$1,213 +459%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $516 +$275 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $121 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $61 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $97 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records