Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b8…0ae1 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 22% $0
sports 6% −$4
politics 6% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -4.7% -13.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -4.7% -13.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -10.4%
10% -23.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -38.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage472d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$2 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $8 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 19 $8 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 09 $2 $0 -26%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 06 $12 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $14 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $50 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $50 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $42 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $35 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $7 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.25 · official $46.25 (match) · 82 history records