Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
95 0x95b9…a8cd world 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$967 (+1%) realized +$890 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%76W / 15L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$125
14 days+$82
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$332
other 19% +$261
politics 17% +$8
crypto 10% +$225
economics 8% +$58
finance 2% +$17
sports 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 18% -11.9%
≤30d 24 -1.7% -11.1% 75% 21% -8.2%
≤90d 52 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 17% -7.2%
all 91 +0.2% -9.3% 84% 16% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 16% -8.3%
10% -18.0% 8% -17.1%
15% -25.9% 4% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$89 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$7,094
Realized+$890
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses76 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)91 / 106
History coverage199d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,367 $2,380 +$13 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 88¢ 83¢ $998 $940 −$57 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $900 $927 +$27 (+3%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $632 $650 +$18 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $593 $554 −$39 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $328 $362 +$34 (+10%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 98¢ $282 $293 +$11 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 49¢ 40¢ $296 $237 −$59 (-20%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $174 $198 +$24 (+14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $180 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $87 $92 +$4 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 94¢ $44 $58 +$14 (+31%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $14 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Chiefs 63¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address? No 73¢ $272 $0 −$272 (-100%)
Bengals vs. Ravens Ravens 78¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 94¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $200 −$84 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $200 −$99 -50%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $200 −$80 -40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $566 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $828 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $851 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $400 +$85 +21%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $736 +$38 +5%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 08 $448 −$7 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1,860 +$39 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2,130 +$19 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $894 +$18 +2%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 04 $101 +$26 +26%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $175 +$9 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 04 $1,500 +$32 +2%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 01 $300 +$63 +21%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 31 $954 +$7 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $6 −$3 -46%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $1,490 +$2 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 18 $62 +$8 +14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $514 +$45 +9%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 17 $996 +$96 +10%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 09 $45 +$2 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 09 $400 +$3 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 09 $600 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 09 $808 +$95 +12%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 09 $804 +$133 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 26 $1,418 +$212 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $2,374 +$39 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 20? Apr 20 $261 +$3 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 20 $498 +$1 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $800 +$17 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 17 $592 +$5 +1%
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8? Apr 17 $393 +$5 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 14 $94 −$94 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $708 +$67 +9%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 05 $520 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $2,405 +$69 +3%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $250 +$11 +4%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 05 $520 +$80 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 05 $900 +$4 +0%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $971 +$51 +5%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $3,175 +$22 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $400 +$3 +1%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 30 $500 +$3 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 25 $530 −$37 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1,242 2m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $1,229 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $112 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 46¢ $81 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 46¢ $11 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $200 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $178 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1,400 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $900 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $135 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $14 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $712 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $152 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $96 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $120 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 90¢ $991 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,093.97 · official $7,093.97 (match) · 586 history records