Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95bc…b4af sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$152 (-2%) realized −$150 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$27
other 15% −$3
sports 7% −$123
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 48 -6.1% -15.0% 31% 15% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 15% -11.6%
10% -23.2% 15% -20.0%
15% -30.6% 15% -27.7%
20% -37.4% 15% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage574d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $60 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $1,748 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $856 +$3 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $850 −$1 -0%
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Marlins vs. Brewers Jul 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 25 $11 +$11 +96%
Orioles vs. Guardians Jul 22 $4 +$3 +79%
MLB All-Star Game Jul 21 $3 +$3 +92%
Twins vs. Reds Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Panthers vs. Hurricanes Jun 19 $33 +$28 +85%
Astros vs. Rays May 28 $15 +$18 +122%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 19 $8 +$6 +75%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $6 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 09 $2 $0 -18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 08 $8 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Dec 19 $106 +$98 +92%
Senators vs. Kraken Dec 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Faithless elector in US election? Dec 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weeken Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Dec 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $879 89d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $880 89d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 89d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $866 90d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $887 90d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $888 90d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $849 90d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $850 90d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $859 90d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $856 104d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $860 104d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $860 110d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $849 110d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $850 112d
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets BUY Maple Leafs 49¢ $5 243d
Marlins vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 70¢ $23 339d
Padres vs. Marlins BUY Marlins 51¢ $11 342d
Orioles vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 56¢ $4 343d
MLB All-Star Game BUY National League 52¢ $3 349d
Twins vs. Reds BUY Reds 51¢ $56 375d
Panthers vs. Hurricanes BUY Panthers 54¢ $33 397d
Astros vs. Rays BUY Astros 45¢ $15 406d
Celtics vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $8 409d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 412d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 412d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $6 413d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $6 413d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $6 417d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 417d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.86 · official $58.86 (match) · 128 history records