Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95be…88df crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3 (-49%) realized −$4 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% +$4
sports 33% −$2
other 33% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+468%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1 18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.68 · official $5.68 (match) · 6 history records