Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95c0…6c57 politics 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$17
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 73 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage635d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $57 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $58 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 07 $56 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting? Nov 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kamala get more votes than Biden? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avery Johnson win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 20 or more times Dec 6-13? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will New York City FC win the MLS Cup? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will the NPP win the most seats in the 2024 Sri Lankan Parliamentary e Nov 18 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 14h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 28d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 35d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 36d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 40d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 44d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 45d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 73d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 74d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 79d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 80d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 84d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 85d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 97d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 98d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 99d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 100d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 103d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 104d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 105d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 105d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 108d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 109d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 110d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records