Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x95c2…3e64 other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$5
world 27% +$4
other 16% −$3
sports 11% −$1
finance 4% +$14
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.0% -14.0% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 17 +34.3% +21.5% 47% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +21.5% +10.0% 44% 11% -8.8%
all 65 +10.7% +0.1% 55% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 12% -8.8%
10% -9.4% 8% -17.5%
15% -18.2% 6% -25.5%
20% -26.2% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage524d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -30%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $57 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $36 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $55 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $33 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $89 +$14 +16%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $229 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $229 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $225 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $229 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $229 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $4 $0 +6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 25 $7 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $6 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records