Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95c5…d5d3 sports 788 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,900 (-5%) realized −$8,816 · open −$1,084
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%483W / 285L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$2,117est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$14,607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$8,933
other 12% −$1,747
weather 7% −$527
world 1% +$220
politics 0% −$19
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +57.9% +42.9% 67% 67% +2.6%
≤30d 9 +10.5% +0.0% 44% 44% -18.5%
≤90d 768 -2.8% -12.1% 63% 41% -14.2%
all 768 -2.8% -12.1% 63% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 41% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 35% -22.4%
15% -28.2% 26% -29.9%
20% -35.2% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$179 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$14,607
Realized−$8,816
Unrealized−$1,084
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses483 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,117
Open positions20
Markets (closed)768 / 788
History coverage80d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $2,300 $2,260 −$40 (-2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $2,000 $1,992 −$8 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2,070 $1,653 −$417 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $1,000 $1,110 +$110 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,230 $1,076 −$154 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,000 $1,048 +$48 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,001 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $1,000 $545 −$455 (-46%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 52¢ $528 $523 −$5 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 81¢ 81¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50¢ 44¢ $493 $441 −$52 (-11%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $200 $265 +$65 (+33%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $150 $22 −$128 (-85%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $70 $7 −$63 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $101 +$35 +35%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $309 −$21 -7%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $31 +$44 +146%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 26 $48 +$105 +216%
Acosta vs. Zhang: Match O/U 36.5 May 26 $51 +$53 +105%
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-2.5) vs Faurel (+2.5) May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $406 +$410 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 24 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci May 24 $610 −$600 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $302 −$300 -99%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $224 −$220 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Ksenia Efremova vs Sorana Cirstea May 24 $51 −$13 -24%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $407 −$400 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo May 24 $306 +$476 +156%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys May 24 $69 −$68 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,523 −$56 -4%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 22 $256 +$24 +10%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 22 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $352 +$99 +28%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $607 −$600 -99%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Tommaso Compagnucci May 22 $576 +$323 +56%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 22 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $1,020 +$465 +46%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $530 +$469 +88%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bass May 22 $909 −$523 -58%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dell May 22 $356 −$4 -1%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $1,243 +$878 +71%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $334 +$458 +137%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 21 $608 +$462 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $700 −$700 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 21 $304 −$300 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $1,129 −$600 -53%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $611 −$601 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $619 −$218 -35%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $355 +$144 +41%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $497 +$202 +41%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $320 −$70 -22%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Sloane Stephe May 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 55m
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $501 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $502 2h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan SELL Benjamin Hassan 81¢ $137 2h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Benjamin Hassan 59¢ $101 3h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $206 3h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $288 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $309 3h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $501 5h
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 6h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $1,002 8h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $302 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $300 8h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 40¢ $31 22h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $302 23h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $202 24h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $1,006 24h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $536 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $4 19d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $1 19d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $3 19d
Acosta vs. Zhang: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 28d
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-2.5) vs Faurel (+2.5) BUY Vacherot 46¢ $102 28d
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 34¢ $51 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien BUY Cristian Garin 36¢ $51 28d
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari BUY Linda Noskova 71¢ $101 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,606.97 · official $14,607.05 (match) · 2615 history records