Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x95c6…ad4b
crypto · 744 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$685 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$781 · open +$96
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,273
Realized−$781
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses415 / 625
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1040 / 744
History coverage5d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day561.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 12 History 1040 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,445
7 days−$781
14 days−$781
30 days−$781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 65¢ 89¢ $221 $306 +$85 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $257 $284 +$27 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $261 $257 −$4 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $141 $155 +$13 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 89¢ 87¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 71¢ 76¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 53¢ 26¢ $57 $28 −$30 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$1,246
other 8% +$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 50m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 52m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1040 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 36% -12.9%
≤30d 1040 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 1040 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 36% -12.9%
all 1040 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover561.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 36% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 33% -21.3%
15% -44.2% 29% -28.9%
20% -49.6% 27% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,272.63 · official $1,272.63 (match) · 3500 history records