Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95c8…3469 other 960 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,642 (-4%) realized −$1,698 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%470W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$559
7 days+$794
14 days+$794
30 days+$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$137
sports 44% −$1,213
world 1% −$385
crypto 0% −$150
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +47.9% +33.8% 44% 44% +42.8%
≤30d 109 +15.3% +4.3% 50% 50% +22.3%
≤90d 462 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 48% -12.3%
all 959 +1.5% -8.1% 49% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 48% -13.0%
10% -16.9% 47% -21.3%
15% -24.9% 43% -28.9%
20% -32.3% 37% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$42 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$1,698
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses470 / 489
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)959 / 960
History coverage149d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 959 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 48¢ $223 $279 +$56 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 460 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $241 −$238 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $111 +$149 +134%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $157 −$65 -41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $133 +$274 +206%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $95 +$187 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 +$245 +307%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $497 −$235 -47%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $115 −$80 -70%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$10 -10%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $192 −$189 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $139 +$239 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $119 +$282 +236%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $62 +$107 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$131 +473%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $43 −$25 -59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$74 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 +$53 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 −$12 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$29 +140%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $36 −$20 -56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$3 +26%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$6 +57%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$10 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$17 +165%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$7 +67%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$14 +134%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$18 +172%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $28 50m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $200 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $241 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 42¢ $111 17h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 16¢ $85 17h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 17¢ $8 17h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 26¢ $157 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $133 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $95 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $80 27h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 7¢ $67 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $80 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $115 38h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 5¢ $44 38h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $27 38h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $201 39h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 24¢ $202 39h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $203 39h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $192 42h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $139 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 21¢ $49 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $70 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $62 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $159 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 17¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.75 · official $278.75 (match) · 1717 history records