Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95ca…312c world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
politics 20% $0
other 20% −$27
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -4.4% -13.5% 37% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -12.2%
10% -21.8% 0% -20.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -28.3%
20% -36.3% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage266d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$2 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in Septe Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 24 $1 $0 -11%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $13 −$10 -78%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 29 $7 $0 -4%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $15 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $10 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $38 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $26 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $18 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $2.16 (match) · 150 history records