Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95cb…9e97 other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 22% −$17
politics 8% −$7
crypto 6% −$4
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage126d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $615 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $451 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $617 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $375 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $344 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $730 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $796 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $416 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $387 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $353 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 45m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 3h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 4h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 7h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 8h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 10h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 11h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 15h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 19h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 22h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 26h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 41h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 44h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 46h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $33 46h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $19 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.25 · official $6.25 (match) · 1307 history records