trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -53.5% | -57.9% | 30% | 20% | -66.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -39.9% | -45.6% | 47% | 20% | -56.4% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -40.9% | -46.6% | 39% | 17% | -54.5% |
| all | 23 | -40.9% | -46.6% | 39% | 17% | -54.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -46.6% | 17% | -54.5% |
| 10% | -51.7% | 9% | -58.9% |
| 15% | -56.3% | 4% | -62.8% |
| 20% | -60.6% | 4% | -66.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 29¢ | 24¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+41%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+32%) |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| New pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-19%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-23%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 64¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-24%) |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-62%) |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-65%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -72% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -39% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -77% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $7 | −$7 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | Jun 11 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | -46% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | -27% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? | May 04 | $1 | −$1 | -81% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? | May 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? | May 03 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | May 02 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1? | May 01 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |