Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95d4…3c50 sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,826 (+4%) realized +$5,968 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%81W / 60L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$1,151per market
Trades / day163.9pace
Fees−$1,230est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,994
sports 37% −$1,471
crypto 5% +$729
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +33.6% +20.9% 51% 32% -13.0%
≤30d 141 +36.7% +23.7% 57% 38% -9.3%
≤90d 141 +36.7% +23.7% 57% 38% -9.3%
all 141 +36.7% +23.7% 57% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.7% 38% -9.3%
10% +11.8% 23% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here +1.0% 18% -25.9%
20% -8.9% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$976) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$265 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$5,968
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses81 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,230
Open positions3
Markets (closed)141 / 133
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$1,151
Trades / day163.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $130 $2 −$128 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? Jun 16 $28 +$106 +375%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $44 −$45 -102%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? Jun 16 $31 −$72 -229%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $443 −$443 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 16 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $15 +$30 +200%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-22? Jun 16 $6 −$22 -392%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-25? Jun 16 $274 −$405 -148%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $403 +$40 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $295 +$60 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,154 −$151 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $811 +$159 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,275 +$62 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,755 +$584 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,636 −$920 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $64 +$7 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,657 +$510 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $710 +$203 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $286 −$35 -12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $644 −$398 -62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,120 −$119 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,958 −$1,229 -63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,327 −$618 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 −$103 -51%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $60 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,227 +$111 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $839 +$25 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $895 −$291 -32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,387 −$830 -60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,934 −$338 -18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,205 −$210 -18%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,393 +$24 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,139 +$959 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,071 −$127 -12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $46 +$5 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,971 +$29 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,934 −$83 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,992 +$10 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,150 +$362 +17%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $337 +$53 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5,929 +$178 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $37 +$6 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1,373 −$1,020 -74%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $746 +$16 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $170 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $382 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $100 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $119 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $132 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 37¢ $155 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 37¢ $200 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 54¢ $1,569 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $100 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $100 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 57¢ $332 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 57¢ $332 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $350 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $350 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $350 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.72 · official $208.30 (match) · 3500 history records