Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95d4…8a80 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-9%) realized −$118 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$104
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$8
other 10% −$34
crypto 1% −$7
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 33% -23.7%
≤30d 47 -31.2% -37.7% 36% 36% -19.8%
≤90d 47 -31.2% -37.7% 36% 36% -19.8%
all 47 -31.2% -37.7% 36% 36% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 36% -19.8%
10% -43.7% 32% -27.4%
15% -49.1% 32% -34.4%
20% -54.1% 26% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage11d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 100¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+269%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $44 +$79 +180%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $39 +$55 +142%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 +$6 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$39 +127%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$7 -68%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $55 −$6 -10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$5 -34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 +$9 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $91 +$13 +14%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 32m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $10 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $44 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 44¢ $8 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $10 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 24h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 47¢ $41 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $20 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 7¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 13¢ $1 38h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 43¢ $31 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.56 · official $78.56 (match) · 123 history records