Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95d5…ba6c politics 109 markets active 3d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$3
politics 36% −$2
sports 11% −$95
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -4.0% -13.1% 4% 3% -10.5%
all 109 -8.1% -16.8% 6% 5% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 5% -11.5%
10% -24.8% 4% -20.0%
15% -32.0% 4% -27.7%
20% -38.7% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 103
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage107d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $5 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 17d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 18d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 24d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 25d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 25d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 29d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 32d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $38 34d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $38 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records