Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95d6…9aea other 324 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,569 (+4%) realized +$2,539 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%86W / 237L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 512d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$1,840
other 36% −$12,969
politics 14% −$7,421
world 6% +$440
crypto 1% −$595
economics 1% −$433
tech 1% −$502
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.7% -21.0% 57% 29% +1.9%
≤30d 7 -12.7% -21.0% 57% 29% +1.9%
≤90d 53 -34.8% -41.0% 30% 21% -30.8%
all 323 -46.8% -51.9% 27% 19% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.9% 19% -40.0%
10% -56.5% 16% -45.7%
15% -60.7% 14% -51.0%
20% -64.5% 10% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -74% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$117 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$2,539
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses86 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage512d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$30 -75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$10 -23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $79 −$78 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $60 +$40 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $79 +$103 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 +$36 +70%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $56 −$51 -90%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $63 −$45 -70%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $80 −$31 -38%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $19 −$18 -95%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $29 −$4 -12%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $52 +$41 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $38 +$45 +118%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $20 +$26 +129%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $382 +$16 +4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $64 −$44 -68%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $84 −$31 -37%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) Mar 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $125 −$114 -91%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $96 −$85 -88%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $342 −$251 -73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 29 $400 −$80 -20%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 28 $42 −$29 -69%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $79 −$60 -76%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $289 +$80 +28%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Mar 28 $304 −$77 -25%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Mar 28 $243 +$64 +26%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $147 −$7 -4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 28 $21 −$18 -87%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $123 −$123 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $662 −$197 -30%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $232 +$58 +25%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $132 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Mar 28 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Mar 28 $102 −$102 -100%
New pandemic in 2025? Mar 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Nigma Galaxy Mar 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Mar 28 $223 −$67 -30%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $467 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $69 −$64 -93%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $78 −$58 -74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $270 −$16 -6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Mar 28 $228 −$19 -8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Mar 28 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Trump call Putin “strong” on Friday? Mar 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 29¢ $29 51m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $9 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 40¢ $41 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $79 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY 100¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY 100¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $60 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 91¢ $22 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 91¢ $15 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 91¢ $145 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $79 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.00 · official $230.00 (match) · 3318 history records