Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x95d9…cf51 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate37%7W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-25.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-17.7%	-25.5%	37%	26%	-52.3%
≤30d	19	-17.7%	-25.5%	37%	26%	-52.3%
≤90d	19	-17.7%	-25.5%	37%	26%	-52.3%
all	19	-17.7%	-25.5%	37%	26%	-52.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.5%	26%	-52.3%
10% ← realistic here	-32.6%	26%	-56.9%
15%	-39.1%	16%	-61.0%
20%	-45.1%	11%	-64.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)37%

Wins / losses7 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	59¢	68¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$4	-35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 16	$32	−$30	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Jun 16	$5	$0	+0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$5	$0	-0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	Jun 16	$1	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Jun 16	$2	$0	-12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$5	−$1	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$26	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$27	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	51m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	52m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$5	52m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	SELL No	85¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	57m
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	SELL Yes	95¢	$1	58m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	SELL Yes	66¢	$1	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$5	1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	SELL No	4¢	$1	1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	70¢	$5	1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	BUY No	85¢	$1	2h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY No	5¢	$1	2h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY Yes	96¢	$1	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.72 · official $5.72 (match) · 43 history records