Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x95de…c182 crypto 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate94%120W / 7L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$9
politics 25% +$19
tech 0% +$2
other 0% +$3
economics 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
culture 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 27 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 7% -9.3%
all 127 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 17% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 8% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses120 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage616d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 92¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $121 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 05 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? May 27 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 16 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 08 $182 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 03 $4 +$2 +39%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? May 03 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? Apr 28 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? Apr 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 18 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 9? Apr 10 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 06 $173 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 31? Apr 02 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $168 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? Mar 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 9? Mar 13 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 7? Mar 09 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $176 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Mar 02 $6 +$3 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? Mar 01 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $162 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $109 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $2 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $116 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $121 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $171 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 45d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $6 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $177 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $166 56d
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 62d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 72¢ $4 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $166 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $170 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $171 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $169 72d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 97¢ $6 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $179 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $173 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $172 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $176 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $168 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $175 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $175 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.02 · official $119.02 (match) · 287 history records