Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x95df…b107 crypto 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%58W / 43L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$24
other 22% −$3
politics 8% +$7
economics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 28 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 101 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses58 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage235d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? Jun 22 $127 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? May 26 $127 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 13? May 19 $127 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? May 13 $127 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 25 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $127 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $127 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 13 $127 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 28? Apr 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $104 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 6? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 10 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $127 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $127 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $127 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $127 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $127 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $127 33d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $127 33d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $127 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $127 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $127 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $127 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $127 54d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $127 54d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $127 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $127 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $127 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 59d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $127 59d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $128 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $127 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $127 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $127 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 100¢ $127 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 100¢ $127 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $127 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $126 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $126 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.15 · official $127.15 (match) · 229 history records