Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95df…2db9 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 25 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 25 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 8% -9.3%
all 25 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 8% -9.3%
10% -27.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -34.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -40.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage23d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $67 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $74 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10PM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET May 29 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? May 29 $44 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET May 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10AM ET May 28 $8 −$5 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9AM ET May 28 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $56 +$7 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $9 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $7 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $74 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? SELL No 88¢ $44 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? BUY No 88¢ $44 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records