Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x95e0…abf7 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 52L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$42
other 19% −$4
sports 14% +$3
politics 14% +$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 26 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 15% -6.8%
≤90d 72 +3.8% -6.1% 35% 7% -8.3%
all 83 +1.1% -8.5% 37% 10% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 10% -8.3%
10% -17.3% 5% -17.1%
15% -25.3% 4% -25.1%
20% -32.6% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage531d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $65 +$3 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $73 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $143 +$3 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $66 +$3 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $76 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $200 +$15 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $141 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $36 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $76 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 +$18 +50%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $81 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $83 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +15%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $41 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $67 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $65 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $27 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $27 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $19 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $74 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $29 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $46 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $62 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $73 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $62 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records