Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95e1…e468 crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$778 (-8%) realized −$742 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%47W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$891
world 10% −$200
other 0% +$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 14 -31.4% -37.9% 29% 21% -49.2%
all 131 -0.6% -10.0% 36% 27% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 27% -20.2%
10% -18.7% 16% -27.9%
15% -26.5% 14% -34.8%
20% -33.7% 11% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$34 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$742
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses47 / 84
Open positions7
Markets (closed)131 / 138
History coverage148d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 52¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 03 $55 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 03 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 03 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 10 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 24 $90 −$44 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$21 +106%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 22 $2 +$5 +273%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8PM ET Mar 10 $410 −$132 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7PM ET Mar 09 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET Mar 04 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4AM ET Mar 04 $657 +$86 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7PM ET Mar 04 $1,106 −$525 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6PM ET Mar 04 $469 +$124 +26%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5PM ET Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 03 $5 +$1 +13%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 03 $10 +$267 +2669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8PM ET Mar 03 $946 +$142 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 03 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 03 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 03 $175 −$124 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 03 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 02 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 02 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 02 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 02 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 02 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $12 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $12 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.44 · official $30.44 (match) · 568 history records